Rules
Current rules version：v1
In plain language
- Each question asks whether BTC or ETH will be up, flat or down over a fixed window. "Flat" means the move stayed within the threshold; boundary cases count as flat.
- You submit three probabilities that sum to 1, before the deadline. One submission per person per question, and it cannot be edited or withdrawn.
- Settlement uses the median of Binance, Coinbase and OKX prices at the window's start and end. If fewer than two exchanges respond, the question is voided.
- Scoring is the multiclass Brier score. A missed question scores 2/3 — the same as guessing evenly — so skipping is not a way to protect your record.
- Skill = 1 − mean Brier ÷ (2/3). Zero means no better than guessing. You need at least 30 settled questions to appear on the leaderboard.
The binding text is in Chinese
The summary above is a summary, not the rulebook. The binding text is the Chinese specification; if the two ever disagree, the Chinese text governs. We deliberately do not maintain a parallel English rulebook. Two rule documents drift apart, and for rules that means two different sets of rules.